Kiwi Remains Volatile Ahead of RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate Decision, 50+ PIP Movement Likely; April 13, 2021

New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate Decision

New Zealand has scheduled to release Interest Rate Decision on April 14 at 0200 GMT/0730 IST. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

Important to note here that, RBNZ has kept interest rate unchanged to 0.25 pct since March 2020. In tomorrow’s meet, markets expect RBNZ will keep interest rate unchanged but the recent fundamental data from NZ putting out some pressure on Central Bank. NZ’s GDP data surprisingly contracted in the fourth quarter. On the other side New Zealand’s business sentiment and consumer spending appear to have deteriorated so far in 2021, indicating a possible double-dip recession in the New Zealand. Accordingly there are chances that RBNZ governor may remain dovish in Policy Statement. Now RBNZ is having only option to keep the Cash Rate near zero for longer time only till the New Zealand’s economy come back on the recovering mode.

Let’s see how NZD has reacted during the previous data release:

Feb 24:

Technical View:

NZD/USD: The Kiwi exhibits range bound movement and remains well supported above $0.7030 mark. The pair made intraday high at $0.7041 and low at $0.7003 mark. A day chart as well as H1 chart with triple EMA confirms the bearish trend for the time being. A sustained close above $0.7057 requires for the upside rally. Alternatively, a consistent close below $0.7000 will check further supports too.

Key Resistances: $0.7070, $0.7105, $0.7130, $0.7170, $0.7199

Key Supports: $0.7000, $0.6976, $0.6942, $0.6910, $0.6875

Take a look and do trade wisely!
Good Luck