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December 8, 2021

CAD Strengthens Extremely Ahead of BoC’s Policy Rate Decision, 90+ PIP Volatility Likely in USD/CAD; Dec 08, 2021

Bank of Canada’s Cash Rate Decision

The key event for the day is Bank of Canada’s Cash Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement. The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC Rate Statement, which is focused on the future. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. In addition, Monetary Policy Statement discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

BoC is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged but key focus will remain on Inflation Forecasts and gradually on an aggressive strategy of interest rate hikes. Investors are expecting in five increases next year to its 0.25% benchmark overnight rate, with a more than 50% chance of a first hike by January 2022. On the other end, Omicron will remain in center to decide the further policies.

Let’s see how CAD has reacted during the previous data release:

Oct 27:

Sept 08:

Technical View:

USD/CAD:

The CAD strengthened sharply after higher than expected Canada’s Ivey PMI results and today hits fresh 3 – week high at 1.2618 mark.
The pair made intraday high at 1.2664 and low at 1.2618 mark.
Today a day chart is up and H1 chart with triple EMA suggests bearish trend for the time being.
A sustained close above 1.2660 on H1 chart requires for the upside rally./li>
Alternatively, a consistent close below 1.2600 on H1 chart will check key supports too.

SUPPORTS	RESISTANCES
1.2600	1.2660
1.2582	1.2692
1.2555	1.2715
1.2509	1.2740
1.2490	1.2764

Take a look and do trade wisely!
Good Luck

TP Global FX Research Team

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