Aussies Trades Marginally Lower Ahead of RBA’s Cash Rate Decision, 35+ PIP Volatility Likely in AUD Parity; March 02, 2021

Australia Cash Rate Decision

Australia has scheduled to release official cash rate at 0330 GMT/0900 IST. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. Australia decreased the OCR to 0.10 from 0.25 pct on Oct 06, 2020. Thereafter, RBA kept key interest rate unchanged at 0.10 pct only. In today’s official meet too, markets expect interest rate to remains unchanged only. Now the focus turns to the policy RBA’s policy statement only.

Before a week only, RBA has purchased $7B bonds to keep 3 – year yields range as per the Reserve Bank’s target. Currently, RBA’s yields on 3-year government bonds rose as high as 0.148 pct on February 25, 2021 and still remain just over 3 -basis points higher than the RBA’s target. In addition, coronavirus updates and expected time for the economy recovery will remain important to forecast the future path of the parity.

Let’s see how AUD has reacted during the previous data release:

Feb 02:

Dec 01:

Technical View:

AUD/USD: Aussie trades marginally lower ahead of RBA’s cash rate decision. Today in early Asia, Australia released current account data with positive numbers while building approvals results disappointed to traders. A day chart with triple EMA suggests the bullish trend in long run but H1 chart has confirmed bearish trend in short run. A sustained close above $0.7785 on H1 chart requires for the upside rally. Alternatively, current downside movement will take the parity back below $0.7692 mark.

Key Resistances: $0.7785, $0.7799, $0.7820, $0.7866, $0.7905

Key Supports: $0.7692, $0.7676, $0.7622, $0.7599, $0.7540

Take a look and do trade wisely!
Good Luck