Aussie Rises Ahead of RBA’s Cash Rate Decision, 25+ PIP Volatility Expected; July 06, 2021

Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate Decision

Today RBA will release Cash Rate Decision at 0430 GMT/1000 IST. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation – traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. Along with it, RBA will release Monetary Policy Statement too. It’s among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions.

During June Meeting RBA postponed major decisions on July meeting only. This is the reason traders eye RBA’s July meet to predict the trend of Aussie. Major changes may come in terms of asset purchases, bond yield targets, forward guidance on cash rates and lastly Aussie dollar.

Let’s see how Aussie has reacted during the previous data release:

June 01:

May 04:

Technical View:

  • The Aussie rises in early Asian hours and hovers around $0.7550 mark.
  • The pair made intraday high at $0.7553 and low at $0.7524 mark.
  • A day chart is bearish but H1 chart with triple EMA suggests up trend for the time being.
  • A sustained close above $0.7573 on H1 chart requires for the upside rally.
  • Alternatively, a consistent close below $0.7522 will check further supports.
$0.7522 $0.7573
$0.7490 $0.7590
$0.7458 $0.7620
$0.7440 $0.7648
$0.7420 $0.7677

Take a look and do trade wisely!
Good Luck